With best compliments,
Subject: "Why failure of climate summit would herald global catastrophe: 3.5° "-The Independent.
Bishwa Nath Singh from Dalmianagar (Bihar),India.
The universe is heading for the next major climate change conference in Cancun that is expected to be held later this year on course for global warming of up to 3.5C in the coming century as per series of scientific analyses. The failure of last December's UN climate summit in Copenhagen means that cuts in carbon emissions pledged by the international community will not be enough to keep the anticipated warming within safe limits. Two analyses of the Copenhagen Accord and its pledges, by Dr Sivan Kartha of the Stockholm Environment Institute, and by the Climate Action Tracker website, suggest that cuts that are currently promised under Copenhagen, the world will still warm by 3.5C by 2100. Such a rise would be likely to have disastrous effects on agricultural production, water availability, natural ecosystems and sea-level rise across the world, producing tens of millions of refugees. A month ago, in its annual State of the Climate report, published in conjunction with the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration listed ten separate indicators of a warming planet, seven of them rising – ranging from air temperature over land and humidity to sea level – and three of them declining: Arctic sea-ice, glaciers, and spring snow cover. The scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable as NOAA revealed lately. Cancun, or COP 16 as it is officially known, will again see ministers and officials from nearly 200 nations grapple with the politics of global warming, but no one thinks they will be able to close a widening breach in the world's defenses against dangerously rising temperatures – the wide variable gigiatonne gap This is widely considered the most that human society can stand without serious consequences. Yet the international community does not seem any closer to consensus on the need to make further reductions in carbon and at Cancun, which takes place from 29 November to 10 December, it is at best side issues on which any progress is bound to be made. The Coalition's Climate Change Secretary, the Liberal Democrat Chris Huhne is likely to travel to Berlin to discuss strengthening the EU climate target in advance of the Cancun meeting from 20 per cent to 30 per cent, with his German and French counterparts, Norbert Röttgen and Jean-Louis Borloo. It is great task to rebuild the credibility of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. Cutting emissions by 30 per cent by 2020 would be a game-changer in shifting investment into new clean technologies, generating jobs and growth in supply chains across our economies. The great risk for Europe is in waking up late to these opportunities and losing out to other major blocs who are already eyeing up market share. It is hard to exaggerate the dire effect which the failure at Copenhagen has had both on the climate change negotiating process themselves and on the belief of those involved that an effective climate deal might be possible. A year ago, many environmentalists, scientists and politicians genuinely thought that the meeting in Denmark might produce a binding agreement to cut global CO2 by the 25-40 per cent, by 2020, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has calculated is necessary to keep the warming below . Now, it is presumed that the optimism has vanished. The Kyoto treaty runs out at the end of 2012 and the developing nations, led by China and India, wanted it renewed, while developed countries, including Britain and the rest of the EU, want a completely new treaty to share out the carbon-cutting burden. At Copenhagen last December, world leaders cobbled together an agreement which ended up devoid of any binding carbon emissions targets If there are no further breakdowns, it is possible that the meeting may at least restore faith in the UN climate process. Let us hope that all the world leaders will take it very seriously and strive hard to accomplish fruitful result!
World News Network
August 31 2010 at 4: 06 PM (IST)